Capitalism and Pollution

The US has been something of a world beater in seeing a reduction in CO2 levels in recent years thanks, in part, to its growing abundance of cheap natural gas. NG emits about half the CO2 that coal does and far less sulfur and nitrous oxides. Even environmentalist sources were jubilant.

Since 2006, the U.S. has seen the largest reduction in carbon dioxide emissions of any country or region, according to a recent report from the International Energy Agency (IEA). The report states that, during this time, U.S. CO2 emissions have fallen by 7.7 percent or 430 million metric tons, primarily due to a decrease in coal use. This decrease in carbon emissions is equal to eliminating the annual greenhouse gas emissions from more than 84 million passenger vehicles or more than 53 million homes.

NG must be doing something right when you are getting praise from the likes of Michael Mann and Roger Pielke jnr.

Michael Mann, director of the Earth System Science Center at Penn State University, said the shift away from coal is reason for "cautious optimism" about potential ways to deal with climate change. He said it demonstrates that "ultimately people follow their wallets" on global warming.

"There's a very clear lesson here. What it shows is that if you make a cleaner energy source cheaper, you will displace dirtier sources," said Roger Pielke Jr., a climate expert at the University of Colorado...

...Despite unanswered questions about the environmental effects of drilling, the gas boom "is actually one of a number of reasons for cautious optimism," Mann said. "There's a lot of doom and gloom out there. It is important to point out that there is still time" to address global warning.

Even AGW alarmist sources admit natural gas reduces CO2 output, they only criticise it for not going far enough.

Now I have had some AGW proponents throw back statistics from the EPA that CO2 emissions have indeed been increasing since 1990. But this omits one very important factor - the shale gas revolution has only happened over recent years. In fact up until 2001 shale was only around 1% of all gas produced compared to around 37% now. In fact the dramatic change in the ratio of oil to gas price since 2009 indicates just how dirt cheap NG has gotten relative to oil in just the last 3 years.

Whats more the astronomical growth in output of CO2 by China and India makes the question of US CO2 output almost completely tangential. In fact, here is the projected CO2 output for non-OECD countries to 2035.

But just like with nuclear energy, the environmental movement is not about to take up the mantel of natural gas even though it is much cleaner than coal. As even the New York Times admits.

There is little recognition by either side that current policies to reduce carbon dioxide emissions are inadequate for dealing with the threat that they pose. It is the coal-fueled growth of countries like China and India that generates much of these emissions. Unless a cheap, rapidly deployable substitute fuel is found for coal, then it will be next to impossible to safely rein in rising carbon dioxide levels around the world.

Although the green movement might at first see shale gas as an enemy in this fight, it may in fact turn out to be a friend. Broad development of shale gas resources — with proper ecological safeguards — could be the best way to achieve the quick cuts in carbon dioxide emissions that we need to maintain a habitable environment on Earth.